Canada’s annual inflation rises to 2.4 per cent in October

Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.3 per cent in October, bringing annual inflation to 2.4 per cent in an advance mostly fuelled by higher gasoline prices, Statistics Canada said Friday.

The federal data agency’s October inflation number marked an increase from 2.2 per cent in September, aided in part by an acceleration in vehicle prices and further volatility in air fares, pushing the reading a little farther away from the Bank of Canada’s ideal, two per cent target.

Economists had expected October inflation to be 2.2 per cent, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters Eikon.

Prices rose in all major components in the 12 months to October, with the transportation and shelter indexes, due to higher mortgage costs contributing most to the increase, the report said. Gasoline prices rose 12 per cent year over year in October, matching September’s increase.

Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said that while headline inflation may have been a little higher than the consensus forecast expected in October, this shouldn’t do anything to change expectations for future inflation among policymakers.

“Indeed, with oil prices having plunged so far in November (in contrast to a rise during the same month a year ago), headline inflation will decelerate hard next month and likely post a below 2 per cent,” Grantham wrote in a research note to clients.

James Marple, senior economist at TD Bank, said Canada’s central bank officials will have to weigh in the economic impact of falling oil prices, which in combination with a widening spread on western Canadian oil benchmarks, is likely to lead to a decline in oil production and notable loss of income in energy-producing provinces.

“The impact is not negligible and will slow the pace of Canadian economic growth over the next two quarters,” Marple wrote in a research note to clients.

With files from The Canadian Press