Egyptians protest military’s grip on power

Egyptian rebels are not likely to get what they want according to former Canadian ambassador to Egypt, Michael Bell. He says the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces does not intend to give up power.

“I believe that the kind of speeches that Field Marshal Tantawi made the other day about the desire to move to some kind of democratization is probably not, I wouldn’t say bogus,” Bell said, “but it’s probably not heartfelt.”

Calling the regime of former president Hosni Mubarak “toppled” is a misnomer in Bell’s view because the military from which he sprang is still in charge both politically and in terms of security. 

The Muslim Brotherhood wants power too but is showing restraint for now.  Bell says it seeks to get along with the military. It wants the election for the lower house to go ahead on Monday and it hopes to get enough seats to introduce Islamic reforms.

Bell said he’s worried about the future of Egypt’s secular reform movement.

“I hope I’m wrong but I think it’s going to be a casualty of the existing struggle for power.”

Also working against reform is what Bell calls impending economic collapse. Egyptians are worried about their financial well-being.

The demonstrations in Tahrir Square look impressive but Bell thinks they don’t represent the feelings of all Egyptians. He thinks most Egyptians, especially the middle classes, yearn for stability.

“If there’s an economic crisis…a dramatic falling off in economic growth and the welfare of individuals that’s going to play into the hands of those who take a more authoritarian view of the situation,” Bell said.“Either the military or the Islamists will be sure to blame the economic fall off on the instability in Egypt and will renew calls for a more predictable regime.”

“The G8 should be taking a more active role”

Bell says Canada and other industrialized countries should be doing more to assist the process of positive change in Egypt. His view is that western input has been “extremely modest” supporting financial institutions for example. That and plans to stimulate the economy with freer trade may help in the long term but Bell wonders how Egypt will get through the next six months and the next year.

“We’ve done very little and we’re not inclined to do more which puzzles me a bit,” said Bell.

“If we’re going to undertake an action in Libya for instance on the military side, why we wouldn’t [do the same] in a sister country, Egypt, which is far more strategically important?”

Bell thinks Egypt needs immediate food aid and other social assistance to avoid a serious economic crisis in which incomes drop and Egyptians face more severe hardships.

“There has to be a feeling that things are changing for the better in order for people to keep their morale up.”

Yet Western nations are facing their own economic difficulties and the oil-rich nations in the Middle East seem unwilling to sustain or underwrite the Egyptian economy. Bell says the price of that will be a crisis which will drive Egyptians into the arms of the Muslim Brotherhood and the armed forces.