Canadians in North see U.S. as Arctic threat on par with Russia: survey
Between Russia’s military buildup in the North and China’s growing presence in the Bering Strait near Alaska, it’s no surprise Canadians in the three territories are increasingly concerned about Arctic security. But in a striking twist, a new survey found more Northerners named the United States as the most serious threat to the Canadian Arctic, on par with Russia.
Thirty-seven per cent of respondents identified the U.S. as the top threat, compared with 35 per cent who said Russia, and 17 per cent who chose China.
The Trump administration’s repeated statements about over taking control of Greenland, and implying Canada could become part of the U.S., are among the factors contributing to this perception, the survey report said.
“The rhetoric about the 51st state, tariffs, and several Trump administration’s executive orders have significantly shifted the security landscape in the North,” the authors write.
“This shift does not bode well for the future of Canada-U.S. relationship in the Arctic as the U.S. is now seen as a credible threat to Canada, on par with a traditional foe like Russia.”
When asked how Canada should respond if Washington used force to annex Greenland, 43 per cent of northerners said they preferred diplomatic solutions, while 26 per cent said Ottawa should support Greenland militarily.
Anxiety over sovereignty
The opinion poll was conducted from May 8-26, 2025 amongst a random sample of 609 Canadians 18 and over living in Nunavut, Yukon and the Northwest Territories. They were asked about Arctic security and policy issues.
Overall, the survey’s findings suggest concern over northern sovereignty is widespread: 85 per cent of respondents agreed that Canada must use its Arctic sovereignty or will lose its part of the Arctic.
Northerners surveyed also favoured an assertive Arctic policy. Sixty-two per cent said Canada “should pursue a firm line in defending its sections of the Arctic”, with the next most frequent answer being to prefer a diplomatic approach (26 per cent).
Seventy-two percent of respondents also supported increased defence spending, higher than national averages found in omnibus polls, the authors note.
Resource development and the environment
On resource development, 64 per cent of Northerners said they were supportive of the 2016 moratorium on Arctic offshore oil and gas exploration, with support highest in Yukon at 69 per cent, and 54 per cent in the Northwest Territories. The report did not include a figure for Nunavut on this question.
When it came to mining, 47 per cent of Northerners said the industry’s environmental footprint and negative impacts on Indigenous traditions outweighed its economic benefits, while 37 per cent felt the opposite.
However, when asked how Ottawa should prioritize awarding contracts in the North, 49 per cent of respondents said Northern companies should take precedence, compared with 39 per cent who said the most environmentally friendly company should get the job. The lowest bidder was chosen by only 7 per cent of Northerners.
Need for northern opinion baseline
The report authors say conversations about Northern opinion often rely on assumption rather than evidence and they hope the Canadian Arctic Survey point can function as a baseline to track opinion in the territories over time.
“While polling periodically captures the pulse of Canadians from southern Canada, very little is known about how Arctic residents think about key Arctic debates and issues. In many cases, we stick to anecdotes and sweeping generalizations (“Northerners support policy X”) without hard evidence,” they said.
“We hope that this inquiry will become an annual exercise, allowing us to track changes in perceptions and preferences over time for this under-studied demographic.”
The Canadian Arctic Survey was conducted by the Observatory on Politics and Security in the Arctic (OPSA).
It received funding from MINDS, a Department of National Defence program that funds Arctic and security research.
Comments, tips or story ideas? Contact Eilís at eilis.quinn(at)cbc.ca
Related stories from around the North:
Canada: Canada, Finland signal Arctic priorities with new strategic partnership, CBC News
Denmark: Denmark to expand Arctic surveillance with purchase of long-range drones, Reuters
Greenland: Europeans step up Arctic diplomacy amid U.S. and global pressure, Eye on the Arctic
Finland: Growing military presence burdens Sámi livelihood: report, The Independent Barents Observer
Iceland: Europe’s Von der Leyen strengthens Arctic security ties with Iceland during visit, Eye on the Arctic
Norway: Norway’s Arctic policy and a kaleidoscope election, Blog by Marc Lanteigne
Russia: Cargo ship involved in weapons deliveries from North Korea makes port call in Arkhangelsk,The Associated Press
Sweden: Europe and the US stand united ahead of Alaska meeting: Swedish PM, Radio Sweden
United States: U.S. Coast Guard monitors Chinese ships in Arctic waters…again, Eye on the Arctic
