Russia sees stable oil exports and booming gas business by 2050

Russia, the world’s second biggest oil exporter and the second largest natural gas producer, sees stable crude production and significant growth in natural gas production and exports over the next quarter century, according to its new energy strategy.

Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe, once its main trading partner, collapsed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, though Russian crude exports have continued to world markets.

According to Russia’s new energy strategy published by the government on Monday, Russia targets natural gas exports, including sea-borne liquefied natural gas (LNG) and supplies via pipelines, at 293 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2030, up from 146 bcm in 2023.

It is expected to jump to 438 bcm in a targeted scenario in 2050. The document is a long-term vision of the Russian energy sector which also sets goals.

The strategy sees stable annual oil production of 540 million metric tons a year (10.8 million barrels per day) through to 2050, up from 531 million tons in 2023.

Oil exports are also forecast to stay broadly stable, at 235 million tons per year in 2030 – 2050, slightly up from 234 million tons in 2023.

The West has imposed myriad of sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine, including restrictions on oil exports and some supplies of LNG.

Russia has been unable to start LNG deliveries to customers from Arctic LNG-2 plant, which started super-cooled gas output in December 2023, due to the U.S. sanctions.

In its energy strategy, Russia expects LNG exports to jump to 142 bcm in 2030 from 45 bcm in 2023 and further to 241 bcm in 2050.

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