Blog: Norway’s Arctic policy and a kaleidoscope election

Election season has begun in earnest in Norway, as the country now faces a host of domestic and foreign issues in the run-up to the 8 September vote.

Since the end of last year, the polls have indicated a seesaw effect between the left and right coalitions. The governing centre-left Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) under Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, was facing a slump in support a year ago, largely over economic frustrations. Yet, by this summer it was leading the polls, with the far-right Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet) in second place.

Labour’s comeback had been partially credited to the hiring of popular politician, and former secretary-general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg as Minister of Finance, in February this year. He has since been viewed as a steady hand despite ongoing global trade tribulations and chilled relations between American and Europe. As it is extremely difficult for a single party to govern alone under Norway’s proportional representation system, the election will likely lead to a formal or informal coalition.

Local pocketbook concerns, including inflation and price increases, inequality, the value of the krone, and taxation policies, have dominated the discussions. One oddity has been the debate over the fate of Norway’s wealth tax, an especially divisive policy between the country’s left and right-wing political parties. Critics on the right have maintained that this tax, as it stands, was discouraging business expansion and innovation, and prompting the nation’s wealthiest individuals to decamp to Switzerland and elsewhere. As well, the use, or non-use, of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, with an estimated worth now at US$1.9 trillion (the world’s largest in value), has traditionally been another source of intra-party debate during elections.

Norway is also facing additional economic pressures as a result of being hit with a fifteen percent tariff rate by the United States earlier this month, a rate similar to that of the European Union. Although only about 3.5% of Norwegian exports go to the US, there nonetheless remains concerns about a knock-on effect for Norway’s businesses.

The growing instability in world trade has also revived what was thought to be a lost issue in Norwegian political circles, namely EU membership. Norway is not an EU member, but does follow several Union policies, (Norway is a member of the Schengen agreement, for example). However, after two referendums on the subject, the most recent being in 1994, the country remained reluctant to pursue membership out of concerns about economic sovereignty, especially in relation to protecting the country’s keystone petroleum and fishing industries. The country’s participation in the European Economic Area (EEA) has allowed Norway access to Europe’s Single Market, but this arrangement does not give Oslo a say in the crafting of EU policy.

While public opinion is still soft on the matter, concerns about Norway being isolated in global markets has revived low-level discussion of EU membership since last year. The matter is still considered a hot potato by the mainstream political parties however, as illustrated by the fracturing of the minority government in January this year when the traditionally ‘Eurosceptic’ Centre Party (Senterpartiet) left the coalition, (prompting Labour to govern alone, albeit with support from the left bloc, going into this vote), over implementation of EU energy policies.

The Conservative Party (Høyre) has traditionally been more pro-European Union in political stance, while parties on the left such as the Greens (Miljøpartiet De Grønne) and the Red Party (Rødt) have been much more skeptical of membership.

Security issues are also a major factor in current Norwegian political debates due to the ongoing attempted Russian invasion of Ukraine and the growing spillover of European Russian disputes into the Arctic. In October last year, the Støre government announced that it was seeking an increase in military spending up to just over 110 billion NoK (US$10.9 billion) for 2025, and that it was committed to raising defence spending to five percent of gross national product, in keeping with NATO recommendations.

This month also saw the publication by the Norwegian government of a revised Arctic strategy, ‘Norge i Nord Nordområdepolitikken i en ny virkelighet,’ [in Norwegian], or ‘Norway in the North: High North Policy in a New Reality’, the first such policy upgrade since 2017. The document very much reflects the two biggest changes in Norwegian Arctic security policy in the last eight years, namely the post-2022 invasion of Ukraine and the addition of neighbours Finland and Sweden into NATO.

The five components elucidated in the revised policy included the protection of Norwegian Arctic sovereignty and the elaboration of security policies which reflect military and civilian interests, as well as scientific research needs, and which are compatible with international law and key organisations including the Arctic Council, the European Union, and NATO. These initiatives would take place in cooperation with Sámi and other Indigenous communities. Second, via a ‘total defence’ policy, there would be the development of local economic opportunities, including in key sectors like tourism, and improvements to general infrastructure, as well as improving northern expertise in the country.

Third, there is a call for strengthened northern communities, including through improved housing, better education and connectivity. Related to this area was the announcement earlier this month that the Støre government would support a landmark research initiative, Polhavet 2050 (Arctic Ocean 2050). This programme, worth 1 billion NoK (US$99.3 million) and dedicated to improving the understanding of the Arctic Ocean, would bring together several different research institutions. the programme will be chaired by UiT – The Arctic University of Norway, and would operate, starting next year, until 2036.

Fourth, and related, would be the building of better infrastructure between communities, while improving regional transportation options. Finally, there is a focus on business development which creates a positive multiplier effect for northern populations.

The strategy document noted that Norway’s high north had become the country’s ‘most important strategic focus area’, not only due to the winds of geopolitics but also the great impact of climate change including ice erosion. Improved military capabilities as well as strengthened external defence ties, with other Northern European governments and the United States and Canada, were seen as crucial to Norwegian security interests. Russia’s expanded Arctic interests, including maritime capabilities are now posing a challenge to Norwegian monitoring capabilities, and the document explains the country’s commitment to international law in the high north.

Moreover, Svalbard has suddenly found itself caught in the deteriorated security situation in the Arctic. The new Arctic strategy report reiterated that the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS) would be the only accepted educational facility on the islands, and that a new research office would be established to regulate international actors. This at a time when Russia has been advocating for the founding of a completely separate Svalbard research facility at its settlement in Pyramiden which would be open to members of the expanded BRICS group, which includes large economies like China, Brazil, India, and the United Arab Emirates.

Regardless of the outcome of the September election, it is unlikely that there will be dramatic shift in Norwegian foreign and defence policy. However, the dialogues leading up to the vote have underlined how much has changed in the perceptions of Norway as an Arctic state with myriad regional responsibilities.

Related stories from around the North: 

Canada: Canada, Finland signal Arctic priorities with new strategic partnership, CBC News

Denmark: Denmark to expand Arctic surveillance with purchase of long-range drones, Reuters 

Greenland: Europeans step up Arctic diplomacy amid U.S. and global pressure, Eye on the Arctic

Finland: Growing military presence burdens Sámi livelihood: report, The Independent Barents Observer

Iceland: Europe’s Von der Leyen strengthens Arctic security ties with Iceland during visit, Eye on the Arctic

Norway: Amid Norway’s celebration of Svalbard Treaty comes another verbal attack from Moscow, Reuters

Russia: Cargo ship involved in weapons deliveries from North Korea makes port call in Arkhangelsk,The Associated Press

Sweden: Europe and the US stand united ahead of Alaska meeting: Swedish PM, Radio Sweden 

United States: U.S. Coast Guard monitors Chinese ships in Arctic waters…again, Eye on the Arctic