Canadian government ads that claim the Canadian economy will need “one million skilled tradesmen and women” over the next decade. as part of a publicity campaign to promote a government funded apprentice loan program, may not be correct, according to a report Sunday (January 11) by Canada’s public broadcaster CBC.
Journalist Susana Mas reports that “independent forecasts and even the government’s own projections tell a different story” about the shortage.
According to Mas “The government pointed CBC News to “a combination of industry estimates,” several of which were written by Rick Miner, the president of Miner & Miner Ltd., a management consulting firm specializing in labour market issues.”
But Mas reports “Miner concluded that Canada will face a “major problem” with skilled worker shortages if nothing changes over the next 16 years.” And he could not point to any labour data showing Canada would face a shortage of “one million skilled trades” workers over the next decade.
She says that Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper was “more careful” when he announced the apprenticeship program last week, citing “one million additional skilled workers” – not a shortfall of “trades” workers.
A federal government press release announcing the start of applications for the loan program says “The [Canadian think tank] Conference Board of Canada predicts that Canada will need one million additional skilled workers by 2020.”
In her report CBC’s Mas points out the prediction was made in “a 14-year-old Conference Board of Canada report that found the labour shortfall could reach nearly a million workers by 2020. But the non-profit think-tank revisited the report a little over a year ago and publicly said the so-called “million worker shortfall” was “not possible” and widely “misunderstood.”
“In that same report, we explained that a worker shortfall is ‘logically impossible,'” wrote Pedro Antunes, the deputy chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada, in a commentary published on Nov. 11, 2013.
More information:
CBC News/Susana Mas – Apprenticeship ad’s claim of skilled trades shortfall open to question – here
Government of Canada press release – PM announces that the Canada Apprentice Loan program is now accepting applications – here
Conference Board/Pedro Antunes – A Labour Market Shortage of 1 Million by 2020? Where We Stand Today – here
Employment and Social Development Canada video on Canada Apprenticeship Loan program below:
http://youtu.be/Y_3dpdC_Rr4
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