Russian researchers: Average Arctic temperature could increase 20°С by century’s end

In this July 21, 2017 file photo, researchers look out from the Finnish icebreaker MSV Nordica as the sun sets over sea ice in the Victoria Strait along the Northwest Passage in Canada’s Arctic Archipelago. (David Goldman/AP Photo)
A group of Russian climate researchers outline a further multi-degree warming of the Arctic.

According to the Russian Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, climate gas emissions are leading to a continued rapid temperature increase in the northernmost part of the planet.

By the end of the century, average temperatures in the central parts of the Arctic could be 20 °С higher than what is considered normal for the region.

The scenario is based on a continued major emission of climate gases, senior researcher Yevgeny Volodin told to TASS.

Furthemore, even with a significant cut in emissions, temperatures in the region will continue to increase, Volodin explains.

“Even in a situation where the world community by 2050 reaches a zero-emission target for climate gases into the atmosphere, the Arctic will in any case be 2-3 degrees warmer than today because of the inertia of the climate system,” the researcher says.

Normal average temperatures in the central parts of the Arctic range between minus 10-30°С.  In the area of the North Pole the normal average temperature per year is between minus 15-20°С.

The Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematic is part of the Russian Academy of Science and has modeling of climate change scenarios as one of its main research areas.

Related stories from around the North:

Canada:  2020 shaping up to be among warmest years on record says WMO, Eye on the Arctic

Greenland: Rise in sea level from ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica match worst-case scenario: study, CBC News

Russia: Northern climate change will cost country €99 billion says Russia’s Minister of the Arctic, Eye on the Arctic

Sweden:  Reducing emissions could create up to 3,000 new jobs in Arctic Sweden says mining group, Eye on the Arctic

United States: Indigenous wildfire knowledge to be key part of new Arctic Council project, Eye on the Arctic

Atle Staalesen, The Independent Barents Observer

For more news from the Barents region visit The Independent Barents Observer.

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