NATO maintains intensive surveillance amid Russian Arctic training and weapons testing

At least four NATO surveillance aircraft were operating west, south and north of the Kola Peninsula on Wednesday, as Russia’s military imposed new restrictions on civilian aviation and commercial shipping across increasingly large areas of the Barents Sea and White Sea.

The Northern Fleet has not officially announced any major exercises in the coming days. However, a series of Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs) are warning pilots to avoid areas of the northern Barents Sea near Franz Josef Land, west of the Rybachy Peninsula north of Murmansk, and along the western coast of Novaya Zemlya. Further NOTAMs cover large areas of airspace over the White Sea.

Russia’s Sea Port Administration for the Western Arctic, based in Murmansk, has issued corresponding Navigational Warnings (PRIPs) for civilian shipping, including fishing vessels and cargo ships.

“The geographical scope of the announced activities is noteworthy,” said Kristian Åtland, an expert on Russian naval operations in the High North.

“The partly overlapping periods of activity suggest that Russia may be conducting a larger autumn exercise involving multiple elements of the Northern Fleet,” Åtland said.

He noted that naval missile and artillery firings are a regular feature of Russian military activity in the Barents Sea region. “Some of the announced events may also involve land-based coastal defence systems.”

Åtland is a Senior Research Fellow with the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI).

The Russian Northern Fleet remains the country’s most powerful naval force, with more than 20 submarines and a dozen large surface warships. Military bases and airfields across the Barents Sea region are being expanded and modernised, alongside a major expansion of naval weapons storage facilities on the heavily militarised Kola Peninsula.

The region is also a key testing ground for long-range naval weapons, including sea-launched cruise missiles and two of Vladimir Putin’s nuclear-powered weapons systems: the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater torpedo.

The Barents Observer reported in late August that Russia’s two Il-976 SKIP command and telemetry aircraft had arrived at Rogachevo air base on Novaya Zemlya. The large aircraft, together with a Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft reportedly deployed to the Arctic archipelago, are believed to be there to monitor and support test launches of Burevestnik missiles.

Satellite imagery of Rogachevo dated 14 October shows that the aircraft remain at the air base.

Also on 14 October, a Swedish Air Force Gulfstream IV, known as Korpen, flew along Finland’s border with Russia in Lapland. The aircraft circled twice over the area before heading south along the same route.

Shortly afterwards, a British RC-135W Rivet Joint signals intelligence aircraft took over, flying similar patterns over northern Lapland and to the west and south of the Kola Peninsula.

North of the Kola Peninsula, Norwegian and British P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft were also operating over the waters of the Barents Sea. Their primary mission is to track Russian submarines.

The British P-8 returned to its home base at RAF Lossiemouth in Scotland that evening, making a refuelling stop at Evenes air station in northern Norway.

While the two P-8s were operating in the waters north of Murmansk, NATO scrambled two F-35 fighter jets from Evenes after a Russian aircraft flew west through international airspace north of Norway’s Finnmark region.

“It was a Fencer,” said Major Stian Roen, a spokesperson for the Norwegian Air Force.

The Fencer, or Su-24, is a Soviet-designed supersonic strike and reconnaissance aircraft. It is unclear if the Russian flight outside Norway came as a response to the NATO aircraft monitoring the Northern Fleet north of the Kola Peninsula.

In the north, Su-24 are based at the Northern Fleet’s airfield in Monchegorsk.

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Denmark: Trump touts ‘permanent control’ in Greenland deal as Denmark, Nuuk stress sovereignty, self-determination, Eye on the Arctic

Finland: Lapland—President Stubb names Finland’s first F-35 ‘Sisu’, Yle News

Greenland: U.S. gains broad land, air and sea access under Greenland defence deal, Reuters 

Iceland: Rubio seeks to reassure Iceland on Arctic, North Atlantic security cooperation, The Associated Press

Russia: Gas-producing region of Yamalo-Nenets in Arctic Russia is ready to pay locals generously for downed drones, The Independent Barents Observer

Sweden: Sweden welcomes Greenland deal — but US rhetoric hurting trust within NATO, minister says, Radio Sweden

United States:  New Greenland military bases will expand U.S. Arctic footprint, enhance NATO, Trump tells UN, Eye on the Arctic