2024 Arctic Report Card: “New Regime” of warming and unpredictable changes

The 2024 Arctic Report Card describes the North as entering a “new regime,” where temperatures are rising faster than the global average and environmental changes are no longer just occasional records but part of a continuous, ongoing shift.
“The multidecadal records for many Vital Signs suggest that the Arctic exists now within a “new regime,” with recent observations that are not always setting new annual records but are still consistently within a more extreme range compared to past baseline records,” the report card, released on Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said.
This shift continues to show up in important indicators like sea ice and ocean temperatures, the authors say.
In September 2024, sea ice levels in the Arctic reached the sixth lowest point since satellite records began in 1979, continuing a trend of low sea ice over the past 18 years. At the same time, the region’s sea surface temperatures were 2 to 4 C warmer than the average from 1991 to 2020, again, showing an ongoing warming trend.
“While pan-Arctic assessments are limited by a lack of observations, particularly in the boundary regions of the Arctic basin, global climate model studies suggest an increasing role for ocean heat content in accelerating Arctic sea-ice loss,” the report said.
The report also outlines how Arctic warming is increasingly affecting the global climate.

For years, the region helped fight climate change by absorbing carbon, like carbon dioxide. But as the permafrost thaws and wildfire frequency increases, the Arctic is now releasing more carbon than it can take in, a complicating factor in the international community efforts to mitigate climate change impacts.
“Both powerful heat-trapping gasses, the transition to acting as a source for both [carbon dioxide] and [methane] is of global concern as societies struggle to reign in emissions and align with the international Paris Agreement goal to limit warming,” the report said.
Snow seasons becoming unpredictable — and shorter
The report also highlights the unpredictability of snow seasons in the Arctic.
While some areas in Eurasia saw longer-than-usual snow seasons, regions like central and eastern Arctic Canada had the shortest snow seasons in 26 years.
The Arctic recorded its second warmest summer on record, but there was regional variability, with Greenland experiencing cooler conditions in the west and only modest ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet.
“Hope is not a pathway for preparation”
While species like ringed, bearded, spotted, and ribbon seals are still thriving in the Bering and Chukchi Seas despite warming and sea-ice loss, the report warns that the increasing unpredictability in the Arctic could have lasting effects on ecosystems and local communities.
“Arctic residents are responding in the moment to the changes underway, and the deep observational skills of those like the Indigenous hunters in the Kangiqtugaapik region [eastern Baffin Island] are helping their communities understand, prepare, and take action,” the report said.
“While we can hope that many plants and animals will find pathways for adaptation, as ice seals in the Bering Strait have so far, hope is not a pathway for preparation or risk reduction.”

The report warns that without significant efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Arctic will continue to warm, affecting the environment all over the world.
“In our connected Earth system, we all have a role to play to minimize risk, support adaptation, and foster collaboration to realize the best possible outcomes within the challenging pathway ahead,” the report said.
The Arctic Report Card is a peer-reviewed publication released annually to give an overview of the changing Arctic.
Ninety-seven scientists from 11 countries contributed to this year’s report.
Comments, tips or story ideas? Contact Eilís at eilis.quinn(at)cbc.ca
Related stories from around the North:
Canada: Arctic sea-ice melt could mean big trouble for tiny microbes says study, Eye on the Arctic
Greenland: Alarming, above-average ice loss in Greenland due to rising temperatures, Eye on the Arctic
Norway: Polar heat record. July average above 10°C, The Independent Barents Observer
Sweden: High risk of wildfires in many parts of Sweden, including North, Radio Sweden
United States: Bursting ice dam in Alaska highlights risks of glacial flooding around the globe, The Associated Press