Well, it’s hardly the best way to predict the weather over the next several weeks, but Groundhog Day, has always been a bit of fun if nothing else.
Every year for the past several decades, groups of people in specific towns across Canada will gather to watch their town groundhog (marmot) emerge from his winter den.
The story goes that if the animal sees it’s shadow (a sunny day) it will be frightened and go back to the den, meaning at least six more weeks of winter. If the critter sees no shadow, and stay out, then spring is supposedly just around the corner.
The whole groundhog prediction thing may be tied, at least in part, to an old Scottish couplet, “if Candlemas Day is bright and clear, They’ll be two winters in the year”.
And, there’s another Celtic connection. February 2nd is of course the Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox celebration of Candlemas-when lights are lit to celebrate the presentation of Jesus at the temple. But Candlemass itself goes back to the traditional Celtic celebration of Imbolc, the beginning of spring, which was also set in the first days of February.
While the most famous climate predicting Canadian groundhog is Wiarton Willie, from the small town of Wiarton about 220 km north of Toronto Ontario, there are now several others.
The first to predict as the day begins, is Schubenacadie Sam in Nova Scotia, followed by Willie in Ontario, then Brandon Bob in Manitoba, and Balzac Billy in Alberta.
Willie got his start through a bit of a barroom joke and manufactured news story in 1956 and grew from there.
It’s become a big event for the town, and the other towns as well. In Wiarton, a number of activities are planned for the weekend and the thousands of people who turn out for the ceremony. Willie is special among all the other predicting groundhogs in that he is an albino.
The original Willie lived to be 22 years old, vs the typical 4-9 years of a wild marmot. In 1999 the town officials just before Groundhog day discovered to their horror that he had died during the winter. A special funeral procession was quickly arranged, and the search for another albino groundhog was begun.
In actual fact, groundhogs are relatively uninterested in the weather, coming out to look for food, and perhaps sex. While officials insist they are good at predicting, they’re actually (or the officials who interpret their whispered verdict) correct only about 37% of the time.
Still, none of the good burghers in any of the towns are eager to point that out. Why spoil a good thing, especially when every February thousands of people come to town to spend their money for a little levity and escapism.
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