Election day in the province of Quebec

Today millions of people in the mostly French-speaking province of Quebec, the second most populous in Canada, will go to the polls to elect a provincial government. 

It is an election which could have major ramifications for the entire country as the issue of another referendum on possible separation from Canada to form and independent country, has become a major issue.

There are 19 officially-registered parties in the province, although only four actually had any seats in the provincial parliament upon dissolution.  A total of 63 seats is needed for a majority.

• –      PQ-Parti Quebecois (Pauline Marois) which seeks independence from Canada and holding 54 seats at dissolution:
• –      PLQ-Liberal Party of Quebec, (Philippe Couillard) the only non-separatist party at dissolution with 49 seats;
• –      CAQ- Coalition Avenir Quebec (Francois Legault)-generally described as centre-right with 18 seats,
• –      QS- Quebec Solidaire, (Francoise David) -left-wing social democrats with 2 seats.

The election was called only 18 months after the previous one, which had resulted in a minority government for the Parti Quebecois led by Pauline Marois.

Saying they needed a majority to accomplish their platform, which includes the highly controversial “Secular charter”, the PQ called for a general election. .

However, the campaign which began with dissolution on March 5, has been a surprising one, replete with a number of allegations and innuendos levelled by the parties against each other. Many have called it a very dirty campaign.

With a lead in the popularity polls going into the election, the Parti Quebecois has seen its fortunes dropping, especially since the arrival of “star” candidate Pierre Karl Peladeau, the extremely wealthy media owner, with radio, TV, cable, newspaper and magazine holdings.

In announcing his candidacy, he pumped his fist in the air saying “We want a country”. This immediately put the issue of another bitter referendum for independence for the province, front and centre.

While the PQ’s first priority has always been independence, it was an issue they had downplayed as polls show a third referendum, (following defeats in 1980 and 1995) would not be popular. Quebec Solidaire, although also a separatist party, have been a vocal critic of Peladeau for his anti-union labour policies at his media outlets.

The Liberals seized upon the possibility of another referendum following a PQ win and have seen their popularity in the polls rise to surpass the PQ in the final days.

Many have said the election has turned into more of a referendum of a possible referendum,

The CAQ, has called both the PQ and the Liberals the “old guard” and has been telling voters it is time for a change. They have seen their popularity rise in the final week as well, and is expected to be a spoiler drawing “mild” sovereigntist votes away from the PQ-those who are more concerned about the economy than about another quick referendum, as well as from the Liberals whom they may see as allegedly “corrupt” holdovers from the previous Liberal government defeated just 18 months ago.

A Leger Marketing poll released Saturday had the Liberals pegged at 38 per cent, the PQ at 29 per cent, the CAQ at 23 per cent, and nine per cent for QS.  Combined with a large number of as yet not-committed voters, analysts are loathe to make any firm predictions.