Cities and ecosystems around the world will have temperatures hotter than the last 150 years starting on average in 2047 because of climate change, according to an analysis of existing evidence. A new interactive map projects when temperatures will change dramatically in different places in the world, and it indicates the tropics will be affected first. Manokwa, Indonesia is predicted to be first with the new climate emerging in 2020.
Warmer than the hottest
Researchers used weather observations, computer models and other data from scientists in several countries, in several languages to make these projections. They looked at maximum and minimum temperatures over the last 150 years to find the extremes. They then calculated the point in the future at which every year will be warmer than the hottest year ever recorded. That is the point at which the location would have a completely new climate.
Tropics will be hit first
The tropics normally have little temperature variation so they could very easily exceed historical precedents. The different species there are adapted to a stable climate. “These changes, even if they are small, could easily exceed what these species can tolerate,” says Camilo Mora, a biological geographer at the University of Hawaii and lead scientist in this research.
“Canada is among those lucky countries that are going to be facing unprecedented climates after the mid-century,” says Mora. He notes that it is the poorest countries in the tropical regions that will be hardest hit and which have the fewest resources to cope. One to five billion people will face the first round of dramatic change by 2050.
Northern countries will feel effects early
Even though northern countries will face new climates later, he says they will suffer early effects because world is so interconnected through economy and trade. Prices for items coming from the tropics will skyrocket, he predicts.
Mora hopes his analysis will help people to understand what’s coming. “I have a lot of confidence in these numbers,” says the study author Camilo Mora, a biological geographer at the University of Hawaii. It was at Dalhousie University in eastern Canada that he became an expert in culling hidden information from massive amounts a data.
Let the data do the talking”
“They are based on the best science that we have today. This is the best knowledge that is out there. It’s one thing when you have one model telling you a number. It’s a completely different thing when you have 39 models from so many places telling you exactly the same thing. That gives me some confidence that the numbers are robust.
“Once you let the data do the talking like we have done on this paper you realize that there is no controversy about climate change. When you are able to handle the data yourself you realize ‘Wow! This is real stuff.’”
Mora says it’s time to move the discussion away from whether this is happening to what are we going to do about it.
Interactive map shows when climate change will come to you.
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