The west coast of both Canada and the US has long been living with the threat of a major earthquake looming.
A recent report in British Columbia opens with the comment that it’s not a case of “if” there will be a large-scale quake, but rather “when”.
The report is called the B.C. Earthquake Immediate Response Plan
It notes that there has been a substantial expenditure in infrastructure upgrades and seismic monitors, but sets out two worst case scenarios and results and actions needed.
It says for example as many as 10,000 people could die if a major shallow quake struck beneath the city of Vancouver.
In that model, it’s a working day in January after several days of rain and some flooding.
The quake strikes in the afternoon, cracking roads, building collapse and fires from broken power and gas lines.
That scenario was based on the largest quake recorded in the region which was a 7.3 magnituge quake on Vancouver Island in 1946
The report has a second scenario of a 7.0 quake was modeled for the greater Victoria area on Vancouver Island.
Naomi Yamamoto, B.C.’s minister of state responsible for emergency preparedness, said the numbers of dead, injured, and the estimates of damage represent huge numbers, adding , “”I’m quite concerned that most people aren’t prepared, as evidenced by the recent windstorm.” That windstorm downed thousands of trees, taking out power lines and damaging buildings and vehicles. It resulted in the largest single power outage in B.C Hydro’s history.
Other experts say the numbers in this latest report of potential quake damage are high but realistic given the population and infrastructure density of the lower mainland around Vancouver and greater Victoria areas
An earlier but similar report in April, prepared by for the District of North Vancouver said a 7.3 magnituge quake would likely result in hundreds of deaths, thousands of others needing immediate, thousands of people out of their homes for up to a year, half the district without power and water, and many main roads unusable. The Mayor said at that time, the report was a wake-up call for people to be prepared with at least the basics handy to survive for up to a week
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