Stephane Dione’s Syria gambit

Much has been said about Stephane Dion’s alleged Faustian deal with Russia that apparently got Canada invited to join the group of nations seeking to broker an end to the Syrian civil war.

I, for one, believe our foreign minister when he says that there was no deal with the Kremlin and that the Liberals didn’t shelf Canada’s version of the Magnitsky law in exchange for Russia not vetoing Ottawa’s invitation to join the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) comprised of 26 countries and organizations.

But all this talk of Magnitsky law – named after the crusading Russian lawyer and auditor, Sergey Magnitsky, who died in pre-trial custody after exposing an alleged corruption scheme involving Moscow police, judiciary, tax officials and the Mafia – misses a very important point in my opinion.

What is it that the minister hopes to accomplish by joining the ISSG?

‘Determined peace-builder’

“Today Canada, along with 26 countries and organizations, urgently sought measures to prevent the collapse of the nationwide cessation of hostilities in Syria,” Dion said in a statement from Vienna on Tuesday. “I raised particular concerns over the Syrian regime’s continued use of barrel bombs on civilian neighbourhoods as well as the targeting of hospitals and medical clinics.”

In an interview with The National Post’s John Ivison Dion stressed the importance of Canada being at the table.

“This is not a choice, it’s a duty,” Dion told The Post from Vienna. “Canada must be a determined peace-builder. Canadians are risking their lives in the region for peace.”

Game of influence

Sitting at the same table with the big boys is certainly going to raise Canada’s diplomatic profile: kudos to Dion for getting us the invite to the grownup conversation.

But let’s ask ourselves, talking aside, what can Canada do in practical terms to help end the Syrian civil war. What is Canada capable of bringing to the table?

To be effective in any negotiation one has to have influence. What influence apart from our self-assigned moral high ground does Canada have over the principal belligerents and their international sponsors?

After the Liberals ended Canada’s bombing mission in the region earlier this year, Ottawa is no longer a direct combatant in Syria, even though we’re now going to expand our train-and-assist mission in neighbouring Iraq.

So in terms of direct military impact on the Islamic State in Syria or the regime of Bashar Al-Assad our influence is close to zero.

Also, Canada cut its diplomatic ties with Syria after it expelled all Syrian diplomats from Ottawa in 2012. Canada maintains contact with some of the Syrian opposition groups, but it’s unclear how much influence it has, given that Ottawa has not provided any direct funding or military assistance to the rebels.

Canada does have some influence with the Gulf monarchies who have supported the rebels. And the Liberal insistence on honouring the deal to sell $15 billion worth of advanced armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia signed by the previous Conservative government seems to also be partially aimed at enhancing Ottawa’s influence with this key Middle Eastern nation.

But it’s highly doubtful that Canada’s clout in Riyadh is anywhere near the level to influence the House of Saud’s policy in Syria.

Despite recent steps to normalize relations with Iran, Canada still hasn’t re-established its diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic, Assad’s main backer on the ground.

And then, of course, there is Russia whose brusque intervention in Syria tipped the war in Assad’s favour.

While Dion has made some timid steps to try to re-engage with Russia, for various domestic and international reasons, his field of manoeuvre is very narrow and relations with Moscow remain frigid.

Helping ordinary Syrians

But there is one area where Canada can make a real difference: humanitarian aid. That’s a niche that Dion seems to be ready to exploit.

One of the main topics the members of the ISSG discussed in Vienna was the deplorable practice of sieges that have kept hundreds of thousands of children, women and men without access to food, medicine and urgent humanitarian supplies.

“I was pleased that one of the concrete outcomes of today’s meeting was a commitment by the ISSG to ensure immediate and regular aid deliveries to all besieged and hard-to-reach communities across Syria,” Dion said. “Starvation as a weapon of war must come to an end.”

The ISSG called on the World Food Programme to undertake humanitarian airdrops across Syria if access is not provided by June 1, 2016, he said.

“It is important to move toward the goal of a country-wide halt to the practice of laying siege to communities,” Dion said. “Canada is already contributing to initial airdrops in Syria, and I signalled our full support for the expansion of airdrops to all affected communities in the country, where operationally feasible.”

Saving people’s lives is the best way for Canada to re-establish its influence in the Middle East. In a region where hospitality and feeding a stranger are still core values, delivering food to starving people will not only help save innocent lives and restore people’s dignity but will go a long way in rebuilding our image.