Four out of six of the pudgy furballs say spring is around the corner. Shubanacadie Sam (N.S.) sas his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter, as did Van Isle Violet (B.C.) but Fred la marmotte (Qc), Wiarton Willie (Ont), Manitoba Merv (Mb), and Balzac Billy (Ab) all predict an early spring.
Fred la marmotte in Val d’Espoir Quebec, is a relative newcomer to the tradition beginning in 2010. The original Fred has been replaced with his ‘son’. His prediction, spring is soon coming (CBC)
Because of the time zone differences, Sam is the first in of the now several groundhogs in North American to make the weather prediction.
The idea is that when the groundhog emerges from his den, if he sees his shadow, he will be frightened and go back into the den, meaning six more weeks of winter. If upon emerging it sees no shadow (ie cloudy day) it will stay outside meaning an early spring, potentially in a mere six weeks.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford (left) joined the celebrations in Wiarton along with town officials suitably dressed for the occasion to hear “Willie’s” prediction. Spring is on its way. Unlike all the others, Willie is always an albino groundhog. (Doug Ford twitter)
It may seem counterintuitive, and one also has to realize that the European climate is rather milder and shorter than Canada and the northern U.S. where the tradition began more than a century earlier with “Punxsutawny Phil” in Pennsylvania. The celebration was made world famous in 1993 with the comedy film “Groundhog Day” (actually filmed in Woodstock Illinois)
Wiarton Willie’s tradition began in 1955 as a joke, but especially since the 1993 film, has grown like many others into a big celebration and a boost to the local economy. Here the crowd shown in the early dawn in 2018 waiting for daybreak and Willie’s prediction. (Wiarton Willie twitter)
Where the idea of a groundhog (aka woodchuck, marmot) as predictor of winter’s end began is not entirely clear, but the Canadian groundhog may be a suitable substitute for an (or a mix of a few) older European traditions involving the hedgehog.
Farmers would see hedgehogs emerging in February and take that as a sign that winter was ending. As there are no hedgehogs here, early European settlers felt groundhogs were suitable substitutes.
Or, perhaps the tradition might relate back to a Christian festival of medieval Europe where candles were lighted to celebrate the presentation of Jesus at the temple. There were also sayings in England that went something like,”If Candlemas be fair and bright, Come, Winter, have another flight. If Candlemas brings clouds and rain, Go Winter, and come not again.” A similar Scottish version goes, “If Candlemas Day is bright and clear, there’ll be two winters in the year.”
Van Isle Violet sided with her cousin Sam on the other side of the country predicting more weeks of winter. Apparently she stayed in her burrow located on Mount Washington on Vancouver Island, buried deep beneath two metres of snow, and three metres of rock and dirt, said Adam Taylor, executive director with the nonprofit Marmot Recovery Foundation. Groundhogs, very plentiful elsewhere in Canada, are critically endangered on Vancouver Island with only about 200 left in the wild (Marmot Recovery Foundation)
Though creating an entertaining ceremony in their various locations across the country, if one were to check weather stats, the groundhog predictions achieve only about a 30-37 per cent accuracy rate. Unlike the others, Balzac Billy is actually a person in a costume and tends to have a much better accuracy rate while Manitoba Merv is a hand puppet.
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