The attacks “certainly are very devastating,” said Charles Burton, associate professor of political science at Brock University in Ontario and a former advisor to the Canadian embassy in Beijing. “…quite disrupting and sending out a strong signal …to South Korea that the North could cause them quite a lot of trouble if the South doesn’t comply with what the North wants them to do.”
While there is no confirmation that North Korea orchestrated the cyber-attacks, last year it did threaten several South Korean broadcasters because they aired reports critical of North Korean children’s festivals.
It seems the situation was more or less in stasis largely because of Chinese support for the regime,” he said. “Now the Chinese support for the North Korean regime is fraying and the situation seems to be coming more and more of a focus of attention for the world.
Where former leaders of North Korea had close relations with Chinese leaders this appears to not be the case currently, according to Burton. “I think the real change has been that for whatever reason, the North Koreans have decided not to listen to the advice of the government of China with regards to ballistic missile tests.”
China advised against missile tests
It’s believed that China urged North Korea to not carry out the last two sets of missile tests because it considered they would be provocative. The North went ahead anyway. “As a result,” said Burton, “China’s attitude toward North Korea has changed. You’re seeing a lot more negative comments about the North Korean regime in the Chinese press, the Chinese are squeezing them on the energy and food inputs that North Korea is so dependent on and most significantly the most recent UN Security Council resolution sanctioning North Korea… has been supported by the government of China.
North Korea has angered China by developing smaller and smaller missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. These missiles could eventually reach the United States but also could reach China if North Korea were ever to decide it was an enemy.
“All in all the situation does seem to be deteriorating,” said Burton.
Burton expects China, the US and South Korea to sit down and discuss the situation. One possible solution would be for China to abandon its support for North Korea and to support re-unification with the South. A new regime that would be neither pro-China nor pro-US could be created but Burton says there are far too many variables to predict whether that is a possibility.
Charles Burton, a former advisor to the Canadian embassy in Beijing spoke with RCI’s Lynn Desjardins.
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