Last minute decisions, and a lesson for Americans?
Two recent post election surveys in Canada came up with relatively similar results.
According to a Leger poll, it seems up to a third of voters didn’t vote in favour of a party/leader/platfomr, but rather voted strategically –against- another in an effort to prevent their chance of winning. On the other hand, just over a third (37%) said they voted for a party/platform that most aligned with their own views.
Conservative Leader Conservative leader Andrew Scheer had the highest percentage of firmly committed voters, and won the popular vote, but lost the election (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)
An Angus Reid poll found a little over half voted for a party/leader/platform (52%) while a little under a half (48%) voted against a party/leader because they disliked that alternative.
A post-election Leger poll also said about a third also waited till the last week of campaigning or later to decide, with 10 per cent making their choice at the last minute. An Angus Reid poll found a slightly higher number deciding at the last minute (12%).
Angus Reid Institute- voting intention Canada 2019
It seems a large number of those who voted strategically to prevent another party from winning had been convinced by Liberal leader Justin Trudeau who spent most of the last week telling people to vote for him in order to prevent a Conservative win. In a close race it seems many voters who had planned to vote for either the Greens, NDP, Bloc, or People’s Party, switched to the Liberals giving them a minority government win, in spite of getting slightly less of the popular vote
U.S Democrats can learn from Canadian vote
In a side note, the former American envoy to Canada under Barack Obama says the Democrats should learn from Trudeau’s narrow win.
Bruce Heyman said that the Liberal win shows that the popular vote doesn’t matter that much in the results noting that in the U.S.. Trudeau lost the popular vote, but won a slim victory while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost to Donald Trump. In the U.S. Trump won in key states, while in Canada, Trudeau won in the riding rich greater Toronto area. Heyman said it shows the importance of winning those areas needed for a national win.
Heyman also said the Democrats have to resolve differences between so-called “progressive” candidates, and “moderate” candidates. He also said he was not involved in Obama’s tweet of support for Trudeau.
Additional information-sources
- Canadian Press (via PostMedia): J.Bryden: Polls suggest plenty of Canadians voted strategically to stop a party from winning (Leger)
- Angus Reid: Oct 25/19: Study shows Liberals benefitted most from strategic voting
- Canadian Press (via CTV): M.Blanchfield: Oct 29/19: Democrats can learn from slim Liberal win
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