From a huge drop in sales retailers saw the start of a quick recovery in mid summer. A new survey of Canada's small and medium sized business shows that early promise seems to have stalled even though a majority of stores are back to full operation.(Cole Burston/Bloomberg)

Canadian economy: Indications that a recovery from COVID has stalled

In spite of massive emergency federal funding for individuals and business and in spite of what appeared to be the start of a healthy recovery in mid-summer, it now appears that has stalled.

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) has been polling its members on a regular basis on how they’ve been faring.

The results of the latest survey of over 3,000 small businesses which responded, show no significant increase in sales in the past three months and less than a third (30%) show they’re back to normal (or better) compared to pre-COVID sales.

This is in spite of the fact that 70 per cent say they are fully open again although perhaps not fully staffed.

Canadian Federation of Independent Business Sept 22,2020

Small and medium sized businesses, those with fewer than 100 employees, form the backbone of the economy comprising 98 per cent of companies according to Statistics Canada, the federal statistics gathering agency.

Many businesses remain under limited capacity due to COVID restrictions imposed by municipal and provincial emergency health rules as part of the effort to limit the spread of the virus.

The CFIB business barometer for September said business was operating at 69 per cent capacity, actually down a bit from the August level of 70 per cent.

In addition, only 15 per cent of respondents said they had plans to add staff, while 25 per cent said they planned to cut full-time employees in the next three months.

The CFIB in its latest survey notes that if the present pace of recovery continues, it will take small and medium sized enterprises almost a year and a half to recover to pre-COVID levels. The hospitality industry however, hardest hit by COVID restrictions may take up to eight years to recover.

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