COVID-19: Ontario, and elsewhere, at or near the peak?

Ontario, Canada’s most populated province at over 14 million, is now indicating some hesitant optimism about infection rates.

Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario’s associate chief medical officer of health and Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, dean of the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health both have indicated at media briefings this week that the province appears to have reached a peak in the number of infections.   However, they say that the slowed rate is due to the various restrictions, and that the measures such as social distancing shouldn’t be relaxed just yet.

The new figures released Monday are far less dramatic than modelling estimates for the province released on April 3.

At that time models indicated a ‘best case’ scenario of  80,000 infections and ‘worst case’ of 300,000 and a peak of the infections in early May. The best case model also predicted more than 1,200 people would be in intensive care and some 1,600 deaths by April 30.

New modelling suggests total infections during the span of the outbreak to be less than 20,000 in the province, with 247 patients currently in intensive care units with 193 on ventilators. As of Monday there were about 600 deaths related to COVID-19.

Both officials also said that the peak in the wider community infection rate may be stable for a period before a decline is seen but also noted that while the ‘community’ rate has slowed, infections in long term care facilities continues to rise.

West coast British Columbia has indicated its infection rate has peaked. On Monday afternoon there were 104 patients in intensive care, down from a peak of 149 early in the month.

East coast Nova Scotia reported 46 new cases on Monday, a single day high for infections, but also 48 recoveries, also a single day high, There were no deaths reported on Monday, the first day no new deaths were reported since April 16.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford says the new figures shows the preventative measures have been working to lessen the effect of the virus and while the government is looking at an eventual slow easing of restrictions to restart the economy, that time has not yet arrived and is perhaps still weeks away.

Quebec, with the highest death rate at nearly 1,000, is also seeing a slowing in infections and death rates. Under pressure Premier Francois Legault has allowed residential construction to restart in order to ease a potential housing crisis, automobile garages have also re-opened. He indicated however that schools will not re-open on May 4 as earlier planned. He added if measures are eased too quickly, infections will rise again.

Federally, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said, that while it appears progress is being made he urged caution in any lifting of restrictions, most of which have been made at the provincial level. At his weekend media briefing he said, “ “We are going to have to be very, very careful, very gradual, very progressive if we are to prevent that kind of resurgence that would send us all back into lockdown.”

additional information-sources

• PostMedia: S. Kirkey  Apr 20/20: COVID-19 reaches peak in Ontario and elsewhere in the country with fewer people dying than feared
• CBC: Apr 20/20: COVID-19 community spread ‘appears to have peaked’ in Ontario but long-term care cases rising
• CTV: R Flanagan: Apr 19/20: PM Trudeau says Canada will be ‘very very careful’ about lifting COVID-19 restrictions.
• Montreal Gazette: P. Authier: Apr 20/20: Legault says Quebec schools will not open May 4
• Canadian Press (via Sun): Apr 20/20 Canadians can’t relax yet despite progress in curbing COVID-19: Officials
• Global News: G Rodriques: Apr 20/20: Ontario’s coronavirus levels may have peaked, new modelling suggests